[Music]
[音乐]
Live from Washington DC, this is Balance
来自华盛顿特区的现场直播，这是
of Power with Joe Matthew.
乔·马修 (Joe Matthew) 主持的《权力平衡》。
President Trump says it's on Russia and
特朗普总统表示，俄罗斯和
Ukraine to be flexible, in his words,
乌克兰应该保持灵活性，
and reach a peace deal. Welcome to hour
达成和平协议。 欢迎收看
two, a balance of power on Bloomberg. As
第二小时，彭博社的权力平衡节目。 据
Bloomberg News reports, work has started
彭博社报道，
already between US and European
美国和欧洲官员已开始就乌克兰的
officials on potential security
潜在安全
guarantees for Ukraine. I'm Tyler
保障展开磋商。 我是泰勒·
Kendall here alongside Bloomberg's
肯德尔，与彭博社的
Michael Shepard in Washington. Joe
迈克尔·谢泼德一起在华盛顿报道。 乔·
Matthew is off and we have a busy
马修休息了，我们
afternoon ahead. We'll bring you all of
下午会很忙。 我们将为您带来所有
the updates, including an interview with
最新消息，包括对
Sir Peter West Mott, former UK
前英国
ambassador to the United States. He'll
驻美国大使彼得·韦斯特·莫特爵士的采访。 他将在
be here to talk about all the latest
这里谈论有关乌克兰战争的所有最新
updates when it comes to the war in
消息，
Ukraine as this White House ramps up the
因为白宫正在加大
pressure for there to be momentum on the
压力，以推动战争向前发展
way forward. And it's not just our
。 本周，不仅我们的
allies that are under pressure from the
盟友面临来自
White House, but Federal Reserve Chair
白宫的压力，美联储主席
Jerome Powell too this week. Our very
杰罗姆·鲍威尔也面临压力。 我们的
own Michael McKe is live in Jackson
迈克尔·麦基 (Michael McKe) 在
Hole, Wyoming, fresh off of an interview
怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔现场直播，刚刚接受了
with Fed Vice Chair of Supervision.
美联储监管副主席的采访。
Michelle Bowman, who Michael Shepard is
米歇尔·鲍曼 (Michelle Bowman)，即迈克尔·谢泼德 (Michael Shepard)，是
a contender to potentially lead the
central bank once Powell uh vacates his
鲍威尔卸任
his post as the chair.
央行行长后可能担任央行行长的候选人。
>> Her name has come up in uh discussions,
她的名字在讨论中出现过，
but she was careful to demir on her
但她谨慎地表达了自己的
interest and really focus on the task
兴趣，并真正专注于
that she has as the chair of uh vice
她作为
chair of supervision. She has a big task
监督副主席的任务。 她面临着一项艰巨的任务
ahead of her. she outlined in her
。 她在
interview with Mike uh laying out the
接受迈克采访时概述了
the efforts to address what she referred
to as debanking the issue uh affecting
为解决影响
crypto, but also as President Donald
加密货币的去银行化问题所做的努力，但正如唐纳德·
Trump signaled in his executive order uh
特朗普总统在其行政命令中暗示的那样，
perhaps some ideological bias behind
banks behavior too when it comes to
当涉及到客户时，银行的行为背后可能也存在一些意识形态偏见
customers.
。
>> Right. Exactly. And there's other big
正确的。 确切地。
stories that we're following here as
我们也在
well on Bloomberg and we'll be talking
彭博社关注其他重大新闻，我们将在
about them throughout the hour including
整个小时的节目中讨论这些新闻，其中包括
one that I know that you watch closely
一个我知道你们密切关注的新闻，
which has to do with the US potentially
它与美国可能
here becoming a stakeholder in Intel.
成为英特尔的股东有关。
Well, that's right. And this is a key
嗯，没错。 这
moment really for the tech industry and
对于科技行业，
especially for an iconic chipmaker and
尤其是对于标志性的芯片制造商来说，确实是一个关键时刻，
that is whether the US government will
那就是美国政府是否会
proceed with taking as our uh colleagues
继续收购，正如我们
here at Bloomberg have scooped um a 10%
在彭博社的同事所言，他们已经收购了英特尔 10% 的
stake in Intel and that would make the
股份，这将使
US government the largest shareholder in
美国政府成为该公司的最大股东，
this company and uh it's something
而这正是
that's moving shares as we speak. Tyler
我们所说的股价走势。 泰勒，
and let's go to Charlie Pellet uh the
我们来听听
voice of Bloomberg radio and the New
彭博电台和纽约地铁的声音查理·佩莱特的
York subway for the latest on the
最新
markets.
市场动态。
>> I thank you very much very kind. We have
我非常非常感谢您。 我们
got to Intel shares got to begin there
必须从英特尔股票开始，
because that stock surging 7% certainly
因为该股飙升 7% 肯定是
a topic of conversation one we'll have
一个话题，我们将
more on coming up on balance of power
更多地关注力量平衡，
but the Dow the S&P NASDAQ right now we
但道琼斯指数、标准普尔纳斯达克指数目前
are at just about the lows of the day.
处于当日低点。 我
Got to begin with NASDAQ as I'm looking
必须从纳斯达克开始，因为我看到
at a selloff that is intensifying there
那里的抛售正在加剧，
with the NASDAQ composite index down now
纳斯达克综合指数目前下跌了
by 313 points. That is a drop of 1 and
313 点。 下降了
a.5%. Keeping it all in context, the S&P
1.5%。 综合来看，标准普尔指数
just above 6,400, down 40 now. A decline
刚刚超过 6,400 点，目前下跌了 40 点。 那里的下降幅度
there of 6/10en of 1%. Dow industrials
为 6/10，即 1%。 道琼斯工业
down 13 on the Dow, a drop of just under
平均指数下跌 13 点，跌幅略低于
1/10enth of 1%. A slide in the world's
1% 的十分之一。 全球
largest tech companies weighing on
最大科技公司的股价下滑对
stocks. Big box retailers getting a boo
股市造成压力。 大型零售商因
a boost from Home Depot's numbers this
今天上午家得宝 (Home Depot) 的业绩而受到提振
morning. Home Depot up now by 3%. The
。 家得宝 (Home Depot) 目前上涨了 3%。
10-year 4.30% 30% with a 2-year
10 年期收益率为 4.30%，2 年期
currently yielding 3.74%.
收益率目前为 30%。
Gold down $15 the ounce 3317
黄金价格下跌 15 美元/盎司至 3317 美元，
uh a drop there of just about 4/10en of
跌幅约为
1% while West Texas Intermediate crude
1%，而西德克萨斯中质原油价格
6244 a barrel down 1.5% and Bitcoin
每桶 6244 美元下跌 1.5%，比特币
right now is lower. Bitcoin down 2.7% at
现在价格更低。 比特币下跌2.7%，至
113,385
113,385
on Bitcoin. Meta Platforms is splitting
。 Meta Platforms 正在将
its newly formed artificial intelligence
其新成立的人工智能
group into four distinct teams and
团队拆分为四个不同的团队，并
reassigning many of the company's
重新分配公司许多
existing AI employees. It's an attempt
现有的人工智能员工。 这是为了
to better capitalize on billions of
更好地利用
dollars worth of recently acquired
最近获得的价值数十亿美元的
talent. All of this according to an
人才。 根据
internal memo platform shares they are
内部备忘录平台的报道，目前这些股票的
trading lower now by 2.1%.
交易价格下跌了 2.1%。
Recapping stocks declining S&P down 39
回顾下跌的股票，标准普尔 39 只股票
down 6/10 of 1%. And for on demand news
下跌了 6/10，跌幅为 1%。 无论您在哪里收听播客，只要想获得
24 hours a day, subscribe to Bloomberg
全天 24 小时点播新闻，就立即订阅彭博
News now, wherever you get your podcast.
新闻吧。
Back we go to Washington. Once again,
我们返回华盛顿。 再次感谢
your hosts, Tyler Kendall and Michael
主持人泰勒·肯德尔 (Tyler Kendall) 和迈克尔·
Shepard.
谢泼德 (Michael Shepard)。
Charlie Pellet in New York for us. Thank
查理·佩莱 (Charlie Pellet) 在纽约为我们带来节目。
you as always. As Charlie said, I'm
一如既往地感谢您。 正如查理所说，我是
Tyler Kendall here alongside Bloomberg's
泰勒·肯德尔，与彭博社的
Michael Shepard in Washington DC where
迈克尔·谢泼德一起来到华盛顿特区，今天
it is already shaping up to be a busy
将是
news day. We had new reporting this
新闻繁忙的一天。 今天早上我们收到了
morning from Bloomberg News. people
彭博新闻社的最新报道。
familiar telling us that US and European
知情人士告诉我们，美国和欧洲
officials have already started working
官员已经开始制定
on plans to bolster Ukraine's military
计划，以加强乌克兰的军事
capabilities as part of any sort of
能力，作为任何形式
security guarantees. This is going to be
安全保障的一部分。 这
absolutely crucial in these negotiations
对于未来的谈判至关重要，
going forward since we know that an
因为我们知道
initial demand from the Kremlin was for
克里姆林宫最初的要求是
Ukraine to abandon its defense industry,
乌克兰放弃国防工业，
abandon Western military flows. And we
放弃西方的军事流动。
heard from President Trump earlier today
今天早些时候，我们听到了特朗普总统在
speaking in an interview with Fox News
接受福克斯新闻采访时
laying out the stakes of what's
阐述当前局势的利害关系
happening here.
>> I hope President Putin is going to be
我希望普京总统表现
good and if he's not, it's going to be a
良好，如果他表现不好，情况就会变得
rough situation and I hope that
艰难，我希望
Zilinski, President Zilinski will do
齐林斯基，齐林斯基总统能够做
what he has to do. He has he has to show
他必须做的事情。 他也必须表现出
some flexibility also. They're not going
一定的灵活性。 他们不会
to be a part of NATO, but we've got the
成为北约的一部分，但我们拥有
European nations and they'll frontload
欧洲国家，他们会先行加入，
it and they'll have some of them, France
其中一些国家，法国
and Germany, a couple of them, uh, UK,
和德国，还有英国，
they want to have, uh, you know, boots
他们希望拥有
on the ground. Not in not in I don't
地面部队。 不在不在，老实说，我
think it's going to be a problem to be
认为这不会是个问题
honest with you. I think I think Putin
。 我认为普京
is tired of it is tired of it.
已经厌倦了它。
Joining us now for more is Bloomberg's
现在，彭博社的
national security reporter Natalyia
国家安全记者 Natalyia
Drosiaak, who has been following this
Drosiaak 将与我们一起报道更多内容，她一直在关注此事
story, helps lead our coverage when it
，并帮助主导
comes to foreign policy here at
Bloomberg. And Natalyia, it felt like
彭博社有关外交政策的报道。 娜塔莉亚，
one of the big takeaways yesterday was
昨天我觉得最大的收获之一就是，
that we did see these firmer uh
我们确实看到了
commitments from the White House, from
白宫和
President Trump when it comes to a
特朗普总统在
USbacked security guarantee. But do we
美国支持的安全保障方面做出的更坚定的承诺。 但我们是否
have any details on what this is
掌握有关其原则上实际是什么样子的详细信息
actually going to look like in
principle? Well, we did hear a bit more
？ 嗯，今天我们确实听到了
from President Trump today. I mean, he
特朗普总统的更多消息。 我的意思是，他
basically rolled out US troops on the
基本上派遣了美国
ground um and and described a bit about
地面部队，并且描述了一些
potentially having air support to uh
可能获得空中支援的情况，以便为
provide a sort of backs stop to Western
西方军队提供后援，一旦他们达成协议，西方
forces that would monitor some sort of
军队就会监视
peace um in Ukraine once they reach that
乌克兰的某种和平
deal. But, you know, as you mentioned at
。 但是，你知道，正如你在
the top of this, they're still um trying
文章开头提到的，他们现在仍在努力
to hash out the details right now. So we
解决细节问题。 因此，我们
know that the national security advisers
知道，
from Ukraine, the US and the European
乌克兰、美国和欧洲
nations are all trying to figure that
国家的国家安全顾问现在都在试图解决这个问题
out right now, especially ahead of uh
，特别是在
the next meetings.
下次会议之前。
>> Natalya, I wanted to bring up the next
娜塔莉亚，我想提一下下次
meeting and the idea from President
会议，唐纳德·特朗普总统的想法
Donald Trump and one shared by the
和
European counterparts who were there
yesterday would be a bilateral sitdown
昨天出席会议的欧洲同行们的想法是，
between Vladimir Putin and Vadimir
弗拉基米尔·普京和瓦基米尔·
Zalinski. But how would that work
扎林斯基进行双边会谈。 但是
without perhaps a chaperone for lack of
如果没有监护人（找不到
a better word? And what sort of neutral
更好的词来形容），那该怎么办呢？ 鉴于美国总统可能通过关税疏远其他中立地区，什么样的中立
location would even be feasible uh given
地区才是可行的呢？
perhaps some of the uh US president's uh
estrangement of other neutral locations
potentially through tariffs. I'm
我
thinking Switzerland and Brazil.
想到的是瑞士和巴西。
>> Yeah, I think that's a great question. I
是的，我认为这是一个很好的问题。 我的
mean, first off, we need to get Putin to
意思是，首先，我们需要让普京
actually commit to this because we
真正致力于此，因为我们还
haven't actually seen that yet. Um the
没有真正看到这一点。 嗯，
Russians put out a statement yesterday
俄罗斯昨天发表声明
saying they were exploring the idea of
说，他们正在探讨
um looking at more senior Russian and
让更多俄罗斯和
Ukrainian officials talking, but they
乌克兰高级官员进行会谈的想法，但他们
didn't say anything specifically about
没有具体说明
Putin actually doing this. So we have to
普京是否真的这样做。 所以我们必须
see first. Um but then in terms of of
先看看。 嗯，但就
where this actually takes place, I think
这件事实际发生在哪里而言，我认为
it's a really great question. You know,
这是一个非常好的问题。 你知道，
Switzerland was an idea that was thrown
瑞士是一个被提出的想法
out there, but that's a country that has
，但这个国家
really clashed with Trump um over trade.
在贸易问题上与特朗普发生了真正的冲突。
So that's pretty much ruled out. Uh
所以这种可能性基本被排除了。 呃，
Hungary is another option, but you know
匈牙利是另一个选择，但你知道，
they have been a thorn in the Ukrainian
side for many years uh especially over
多年来他们一直是乌克兰的眼中钉，尤其是在
the prospects of EU accession. So that
加入欧盟的前景方面。 所以这
seems unlikely. I think one area or one
似乎不太可能。 我认为，有可能实现这一目标的一个地区或
one place that where it might be
地方
possible would be in Turkey um because
是土耳其，因为
we've seen the last round of talks
我们已经看到，
between the Ukrainians and the Russians
乌克兰和俄罗斯之间
at at the lower level in May were held
五月份在土耳其举行了最后一轮低级别会谈
in Turkey. So that might be an option.
。 所以这可能是一个选择。
Just in our final minute that we have
with you, Natalia, what sort of reaction
娜塔莉亚，在我们与您交谈的最后一分钟，
did we see from our European allies?
我们的欧洲盟友做出了什么样的反应？
Half a dozen of them descended here in
Washington yesterday. I believe it was
昨天，他们中有六人抵达了华盛顿。 我相信
the German chancellor who said that this
德国总理说这次
meeting actually exceeded his
会晤实际上超出了他的
expectations. Yeah, I think we can't um
预期。 是的，我认为我们无法
you know explain enough like how much
充分解释
anxiety there was going into this
meeting from the Ukrainian uh and the
乌克兰和
European leaders just given what they
欧洲领导人对这次会晤有多么焦虑，因为他们
had seen on on Friday when um Putin and
已经看到周五普京和
Trump had their big summit in Alaska.
特朗普在阿拉斯加举行峰会的情况。 人们
There was a lot of concern that Trump
非常担心特朗普
had essentially swung behind and Putin
实际上已经转向普京
and and was disregarding uh concerns
并无视
from the Ukrainian side. And you know,
乌克兰方面的担忧。 你知道，
as they after they met, there was a huge
他们在会面后也
sense of relief also because there
感到如释重负，因为
wasn't another blow up in the Oval
Office between Zalinski and Trump as we
扎林斯基和特朗普之间没有像我们
had seen in in February. But then not
在二月份看到的那样在椭圆形办公室再次发生争吵。 但
only that, they also managed to pin
不仅如此，他们还设法在
Trump down on on uh the the security
安全
guarantee part.
保障方面压制特朗普。
>> All right, Natalyia Drosiaak, we thank
好的，Natalyia Drosiaak，我们
you always for your coverage. A reporter
一直感谢您的报道。
here at Bloomberg News covering national
彭博新闻社的一名记者正在为我们报道国家
security for us. As we were just talking
安全问题。 正如我们刚才
about the German Chancellor M. He came
谈到的德国总理 M。他
out yesterday. He spoke to reporters at
昨天出来了。 他在白宫对记者发表了讲话
the White House. And one of the topics
of discussion, of course, we're talking
当然，我们在讨论的主题之一
a lot about security guarantees, but
就是安全保障，但
there are big questions too here about
这里也存在一些大问题，即
what the future of territory is going to
look like in any sort of potential deal.
在任何潜在协议中，领土的未来将会是什么样子。
Here's what he told reporters yesterday
以下是他昨天向记者介绍的
about the potential for territory
有关领土
concessions.
让步的可能性。
The one aspect which has not been
discussed today is that Ukraine should
今天尚未讨论的一个方面是，乌克兰
not be forced to seed any territories.
不应被迫在任何领土上播种。
Russia's demand that Cube give up
俄罗斯要求库姆放弃顿
Donbash region is comparable to put in
巴什地区，其程度堪比
perspective to a proposal that the US
美国要求
give up Florida.
放弃佛罗里达州。
former UK ambassador to Turkey, France,
曾任英国驻土耳其、法国
and the United States, and now a senior
和美国大使，现任伦敦
adviser at the Royal Institute of
皇家国际事务研究所高级顾问
International Affairs in London. Sir
Peter, thank you for being with us
彼得爵士，感谢您今天与我们在一起
today. Uh, you have worked with and know
。 呃，您曾与 Kier Starmer 合作过并且了解他
Kier Starmer. Well, yes, we can hear you
。 嗯，是的，我们可以清楚地听到您的
loud and clear, Sir Peter. Thank you so
声音，彼得爵士。 非常感谢您
much for joining us. Uh sir Peter,
加入我们。 呃，彼得先生，
President Trump is presenting a number
特朗普总统就乌克兰和平计划提出了一些
of ideas around this peace plan in
想法，
Ukraine and that includes uh Europe
其中包括欧洲
buying the EU buying Americanmade arms.
购买欧盟购买美国制造的武器。
Uh no US troops on the ground. Uh no
呃，地面上没有美军。 呃，
call for a ceasefire yet. What is your
还没有呼吁停火。 您如何
read on the state of the American
看待美国
president's commitment to actually
总统对
securing Ukraine for the long term?
长期保障乌克兰安全的承诺？
Well, I think what he's trying to do at
嗯，我认为他目前正在做的
the moment is to head off the demands
是阻止
that there have been from President
总统
Zilinski and from a number of European
齐林斯基和一些欧洲
governments for Ukraine to be considered
政府提出的让乌克兰成为
as a credible member of NATO. That is
北约可信成员的要求。 这
anathema of course to Putin who doesn't
对于普京来说当然是极其恶劣的，因为他不
want to have NATO on his doorstep. He
希望北约出现在自己的家门口。 他
doesn't grasp of course that NATO is a
当然不明白北约是一个
voluntary alliance that is defensive of
自愿成立的联盟，其职责是保护
countries many of which were once under
许多曾经遭受
the Russian jack boot. he wants to
俄罗斯压迫的国家。 他
rebuild a Russian empire regardless of
不顾有关
the wishes of the countries and the
国家和
governments concerned. But, you know,
政府的意愿，要重建俄罗斯帝国。 但是，你知道，
leave that to one side. Uh he has a real
先把这个放在一边。 呃，他
problem about Ukraine becoming
对乌克兰
eventually a member of NATO. Now, if
最终成为北约成员国确实感到担忧。 现在，如果
that's not going to be part of the deal,
这不成为协议的一部分，
and it perhaps can't be, then some sort
而且也许不能成为协议的一部分，那么某种
of really strong military guarantees are
真正强有力的军事保障
going to be important. And that brings
将变得非常重要。 这让
us to your point about, you know, how is
我们想到了您的观点，您知道，
that going to work? President Trump says
这将如何发挥作用？ 特朗普总统表示，
no American boots on the ground. I don't
美国不会派遣地面部队。 我不
know whether the French and the Germans
知道法国人、德国人和
and the British will want to have troops
英国人是否愿意派遣
on the ground, but they will want to
地面部队，但如果情况真的出错，他们希望将
have them not very far away in the event
军队部署在不太远的地方
that things do go wrong. Of course,
。 当然，
although President Trump says that
尽管特朗普总统表示，
hundreds of billions of dollars of
American taxpayers money have been spent
on Ukraine so far, it's not entirely
迄今为止美国纳税人的钱已经在乌克兰问题上花费了数千亿美元，但这并不完全是
true. And of all the money that's gone
事实。 在
on military equipment, 83% of it has
用于军事装备的所有资金中，83%
gone to American defense companies. So,
流向了美国国防公司。 所以，
you know, it's not been just handouts.
你知道，这不仅仅是施舍。
And so it's not surprising that he says
因此，毫不奇怪，他说
that if there's to be more money, more
如果需要更多的钱，更多的
arms that they should be paid for by the
武器，就应该由
Europeans. But it's already largely
欧洲人来支付。 但
being paid for, shall we say, and it's
我们可以说，这基本上已经得到了回报，而且这对
already been good business for the
American companies. But by saying we
美国公司来说已经是一笔好生意。 但是通过说我们
will strengthen Ukraine's defensive
将利用这些军事装备加强乌克兰的防御
capabilities uh with this military
能力
equipment, then I think you're putting
，那么我认为你正在
in place, he's putting in place a
实施，他正在实施一个
credible alternative, I hope, uh to the
可靠的替代方案，我希望，这是
possibility of eventual NATO
北约最终
enlargement. That's what that's all
扩大的可能性。 这就是全部
about. It's about giving Zilinski and
内容。 这是为了向齐林斯基和
the others in Ukraine an assurance that
乌克兰其他人保证，
if there is a deal, and we haven't
如果达成协议，而我们还没有
talked about territorial swaps and so on
谈到领土交换等问题
yet, we should come on to that. If there
，那么我们就应该谈这个问题。 如果
is a deal, that is one that can be
达成协议，那么该协议就是
relied upon to be fair and lasting.
公平且持久的。
>> Can we just dig down a little bit more
我们能否更深入地了解一下
on what this credible deterrence
这个可靠的威慑
framework would look like? And as you're
框架是什么样的？ 当您
talking about the different sort of
谈到
aspects that we could see, we keep
我们可以看到的不同方面时，我们不断
hearing this idea about air cover. And
听到有关空中掩护的想法。
perhaps this is an area where the US
这或许是美国
would be pushing forward uh the most
最应该推动的领域
here. Can you give us some insight into
how these negotiations are happening
behind closed doors when it comes to
当谈到
what the US would actually supply to a
美国将实际提供哪些
security guarantee to make sure that a
安全保障以确保
potential deal would actually get
潜在协议能够真正达成时，您能否向我们介绍一下这些闭门谈判是如何进行的
through?
？
>> Well, there's a lot of discussion still
嗯，还有很多讨论
going on. There's a coalition of the
在进行中。 我认为今天有一个
willing meeting that was co-chared by
由
the French president and the British
法国总统和英国
prime minister, I think today. uh there
首相共同主持的自愿联盟会议。 呃，
are military chiefs getting together in
军事首领们正在
Washington. I think there's a lot of the
华盛顿聚会。 我认为，这其中的
detail of what it really means that has
真正含义还有很多细节需要
got to be worked out, but we do know
解决，但我们确实
from President Zilinski that he would
从齐林斯基总统那里得知，他希望
like to have, I think he said, 10
different Patriot missile systems uh on
在乌克兰领土上部署 10 个不同的爱国者导弹系统
Ukrainian territory. These are very
。 这些武器非常
expensive, but they are super effective
昂贵，但非常有效，
and they are a very important part of
而且是
the defense of Ukraine against ballistic
乌克兰防御可能发射的
missiles and other uh Russian hardware
弹道导弹和其他俄罗斯硬件的重要组成部分
which might be fired there. Then I think
。 然后我认为
other parts of it would be uh
其他部分将是
territorial guarantees. The president's
领土保障。 总统
talked about something that is article
谈到了
five light. In other words, an attack on
第五条轻规定的事情。 换句话说，对
one country is an attack on us all. That
一个国家的攻击就是对我们所有人的攻击。
is to say that if Ukraine was attacked,
也就是说，如果乌克兰遭到攻击，
then the coalition of the willing, if
那么即使
not NATO members themselves would have
是北约成员国自己，也愿意帮助乌克兰，联盟也会
regarded it themselves as duty bound to
认为自己有义务来
come to help Ukraine. But there's an
帮助乌克兰。 但
awful lot of detail on this military
在军事方面还有很多细节问题
side that's got to be hammered out. And
需要解决。
I'm not sure that President Trump is is
我不确定特朗普总统是否
very clear where he wants it to be, but
清楚自己想要什么，但
he has understood that there will not be
他明白，
a deal unless there is something like
如果没有这样的协议，就不会达成协议
that. And there is an arrangement
。 并且有一项安排，
whereby Ukraine can have its own
即乌克兰可以拥有自己
credible military uh deterrent and um
可靠的军事威慑力量和
equipment to withstand any further
装备，以抵御任何进一步的
attacks because ultimately nobody trusts
攻击，因为最终没有人相信
Putin to keep his word. Perhaps
普京会信守诺言。 也许
President Trump does, but nobody else
特朗普总统知道，但其他人不
does. Anyone who's dealt with him knows
知道。 任何与他打过交道的人都知道，
that as we saw on the eve of the
正如我们在入侵乌克兰前夕所看到的那样
invasion of Ukraine, he lies through his
，他
teeth. So there's got to be something
满口谎言。 因此，
which is, you know, pretty strong and
pretty credible if the Ukrainian people
如果乌克兰人民
and the Ukrainian government are to go
和乌克兰政府要
along with it.
接受这一点，就必须采取一些非常有力和可信的措施。 彼得爵士
Sir Peter, one thing President Donald
，唐纳德·
Trump has made clear is his desire to
特朗普总统已经明确表示，他希望
move very quickly with this and outlined
迅速采取行动，
together with European leaders yesterday
昨天他与欧洲领导人共同制定了
a timetable of perhaps a bilateral
一个时间表，即
meeting between the Russian and
俄罗斯和
Ukrainian leaders within two weeks and
乌克兰领导人可能在两周内举行双边会晤，也
perhaps a trilateral meeting including
可能
him within 3 weeks. Is that overly
在三周内举行包括他在内的三边会晤。 这是否过于
optimistic? And what are the risks of
乐观了？ 那么
moving at this pace?
以这样的速度发展会有什么风险呢？
Well, one of the benefits of having
嗯，像
somebody like President Trump in the
特朗普总统这样的人入主
Oval Office is that he likes to move
白宫的好处之一就是他喜欢
fast. You know, look at all the
快速行动。 你知道，看看
different things that he's done since he
他自担任总统以来所做的各种事情
became president. Some of it we may
。 有些我们可能
like, some of we may not, but he doesn't
喜欢，有些我们可能不喜欢，但他不会
hang around. And he's a dealmaker, as he
逗留。 他是一位交易高手，正如他
likes to remind us regularly. So, and he
经常提醒我们的那样。 所以，他
also would like to see an end to the
也希望看到杀戮的结束
killing, as would we all. So, I I think
，我们大家也都希望如此。 所以，我认为
he wants to get on with this. um he
他想继续做这件事。 嗯，他
doesn't think there's any need for a
认为没有必要
ceasefire which is what Zillinsky wants
停火，而这正是齐林斯基所希望的，也是
and what everybody else in the European
欧洲其他所有人所
side would like and what the chancellor
希望的，也是
of Germany and the French president
德国总理和法国总统
reminded him was a requirement uh for
提醒他的，这是
progress towards some sort of a
达成某种
settlement. He's now moved off that
解决方案的必要条件。 现在他已经放弃了这一计划，
because uh Putin didn't want to have a
因为普京不想
ceasefire. He wanted to go straight to a
停火。 他想直接达成
settlement. But to do a settlement in
和解。 但是
very short order, uh, when you're
，当你
talking about territorial issues and and
谈论领土问题和
guarantees and Putin's desire, frankly,
保障，以及普京想要
to dismantle the entire postcold war
拆除整个冷战后
European order, you know, that's going
欧洲秩序时，要在很短的时间内达成解决方案，你知道，这
to be very difficult. Uh, and that's
将非常困难。 嗯，这确实
that's a real problem.
是一个问题。
>> Let's let's hope that we can move past.
让我们希望我们能够克服过去。
I think everybody would be delighted if
我想如果
there was rapid progress. But you know
进展迅速的话每个人都会很高兴。 但你知道
there are questions to be answered such
有一些问题需要回答，
as what does the president mean by
比如总统所说的
territorial exchanges or territorial
领土交换或领土
swaps. Has anyone seen any sign of the
互换是什么意思。 有谁看到过
Russians offering land of theirs in
俄罗斯人愿意用自己的土地来
exchange for the land of Ukraine that
交换
they want to keep for themselves? I
他们想要占为己有的乌克兰土地的迹象吗？ 我
don't think we have. All we've seen is
认为我们没有。 我们所看到的是，
that there might just be the possibility
of the Russians um withdrawing from some
俄罗斯有可能从他们已经占领的
little corners of Ukraine that they've
乌克兰一些小角落撤军，
already occupied in exchange for getting
以换取
others. Well, that doesn't sound to me
其他地区。 嗯，在我看来这不是
like a very fair deal. I'm not sure that
一个很公平的交易。 我也不确定
it would to President Zalinski either.
扎林斯基总统是否会这么做。
So these territorial issues as well as
因此，我们已经谈到了这些领土问题以及
the military guarantees and the broader
军事保障和更广泛的
political uh questions that we've
政治问题
touched on. This does take time, but
。 这确实需要时间，但
President Trump is a man in a hurry. He
特朗普总统是个急躁的人。 他
went to Alaska. A couple of days later,
去了阿拉斯加。 几天后，
there was everybody in the Oval Office.
所有人都来到了椭圆形办公室。
We've now got the coalition of the
现在，我们已与
winning talking to each other. We've got
获胜联盟展开对话。 我们的
military chiefs looking at the military
军事首脑正在研究军事
guarantees question. It would be
保障问题。
wonderful if we could make early
如果我们能够尽早取得进展，那就太好了，
progress because each day that we speak,
因为我们发言的每一天，
there are more people being murdered by
都有更多的人因
Russian missile attacks on Ukraine.
俄罗斯对乌克兰的导弹袭击而丧生。
Sir Peter, in just the last 30 seconds
彼得爵士，在
that we have with you, I'd love to get
我们与您交谈的最后 30 秒内，我很想听听
uh your thoughts on what has been a
您
relatively warm relationship between the
对
UK Prime Minister Kier Starmer and
英国首相基尔·斯塔默和
President Trump throughout this process.
特朗普总统在整个过程中相对融洽的关系的看法。
What do you make of of the evolution of
this relationship considering that the
UK was the first to ink a trade deal,
for example?
例如，考虑到英国是第一个签署贸易协议的国家，您如何看待这种关系的发展？
Well, it was and it started, I think,
嗯，我认为，这是从卡玛对
with a very successful visit to the Oval
椭圆形办公室的一次非常成功的访问开始的
Office by Kama. Not everybody was
。 并不是每个人都
convinced that it would work. You've got
相信它会起作用。
President Trump who was, you know, full
你知道，特朗普总统充满了“让
of MAGA approach and somewhat
美国再次伟大”的理念，并且带有某种程度的
protectionist. You've got Starama who
保护主义。 斯塔拉马 (Starama)
was a labor politician and free trader.
是一位工党政治家和自由贸易者。
You know, how was that going to work
你知道，那会怎样
out?
>> Sir, Peter, I'm so sorry. We have to
先生，彼得，我很抱歉。 我们必须把
leave it there. Peter West Mott, former
它留在那里。 彼得·韦斯特·莫特，前
UK ambassador to the United States. We
英国驻美国大使。
thank you so much for your time and
非常感谢您抽出时间
joining Bloomberg. We'll catch up with
加入彭博社。 我们很快就会赶上
you soon. But we're now going to go to a
你。 但我们现在要讲的
story that's going to take us to Wyoming
故事将带我们去怀俄明州，
because that's where Federal Reserve
因为本周晚些时候，美联储
Chair Jerome Powell will be in the
主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔将
spotlight later this week when he gives
remarks at the Kansas City Fed's annual
在堪萨斯城联储年度
economic policy symposium. That's where
经济政策研讨会上发表讲话，他将成为人们关注的焦点。
we find Bloomberg's international
我们在那里找到了彭博社的国际
economics and policy correspondent,
经济和政策记者
Michael McKe, who's already there on the
迈克尔·麦基 (Michael McKe)，他已经
ground for us in Teton Village, Wyoming.
在怀俄明州提顿村为我们报道。
And Mike, earlier today you sat down
迈克，今天早些时候，您
with the Fed Vice Chair of Supervision,
与美联储监管副主席
Michelle Bowman, who told you that she
米歇尔·鲍曼进行了交谈，她告诉您她
has a lot on her plate at the moment.
目前有很多事情要做。
What did we learn about how she's
关于她如何
balancing priorities?
平衡优先事项，我们了解到了什么？
>> Well, for right now, she says she's
嗯，就目前而言，她说她
focusing on the regulatory issues
关注的是监管问题，
instead of on whether or not the
而不是
president is interested in making her
总统是否有兴趣让她担任
the chairman to replace J. Pal when he
主席，在 5 月份 J. Pal 离任后接替他，
leaves office in May or to focus on
或者关注
monetary policy. Now, she did confirm
货币政策。 现在，她确实确认
that she hasn't changed her mind on the
她没有改变
idea of rate cuts, that rate cuts should
降息的想法，
go ahead in September and all three
9 月份以及
remaining meetings this year. But she
今年剩余的三次会议上都应该继续降息。 但她
said the most important thing for her is
表示，对她来说，最重要的是
getting some of these legislative
让其中一些立法
proposals through. One of the ones she's
提案获得通过。 她
talking about now is uh the
现在谈论的其中一个是
supplementary leverage ratio. Another is
补充杠杆率。 另一个是
the Basel 3 reforms. The Biden
巴塞尔协议3改革。 拜登
administration had put out a
政府曾就此发布了一份
thousandpage document on that that the
上千页的文件，但
Fed has basically recalled and is
美联储基本上已经撤回，并正在
rewriting under her. And then debanking,
拜登的领导下重写。 然后是去银行化，这是
an issue for the people here where we
我们
are today, the uh the crypto conference,
今天在加密货币会议上，
basically the Wyoming blockchain
基本上是怀俄明州区块链
conference. And a lot of people here are
会议上人们讨论的一个问题。 很多人
concerned that banks don't want to take
担心银行会
on their business because of reputation
因为声誉风险而不愿意承接他们的业务
risk. And she says the Fed is going to
。 她表示美联储将会
be taking care of that.
处理这一问题。
Mike, widening the angle from the
迈克，从
conversation with uh Michelle Bowman, um
与米歇尔·鲍曼的谈话中扩大视角，
what are you expecting to hear from uh
你希望从杰克逊霍尔的
Fed policy makers and other attendees
美联储政策制定者和其他与会者
there in Jackson Hole when it comes to
那里听到关于
tariffs and the impact on the economy
关税及其对经济的影响
and how that may be influencing uh the
以及这可能会如何影响
September rate decision, which some are
9 月份利率决定的哪些消息，一些人认为 9 月份利率决定
looking at as a possible cut.
可能会降息。
Well, I think uh pretty much everybody
嗯，我想几乎每个人都
agrees that tariffs are inflationary and
同意关税会导致通货膨胀，而且
they are causing some inflation. It's
关税正在造成一定程度的通货膨胀。
been a question of how fast we see it
问题是我们看到它的速度有多快，
and we're beginning to see it more and
我们开始
more in the CPI, PPI, and other
在 CPI、PPI 和其他指标中越来越多地看到它
indicators. Companies are coming out and
。 各大公司纷纷公开
talking about raising prices. But then
谈论涨价。 但
the converse is what's happening with
the labor market. We had a very uh low
劳动力市场的情况却恰恰相反。 上个月我们雇佣的人数非常少，
number of people hired in the last month
and the unemployment rate went up a
失业率略有上升
little bit. Does that signal that we're
。 这是否意味着我们
seeing the economy slow down enough to
看到经济放缓到足以
justify a rate increase or does
证明加息是合理的，或者
inflation mean that they don't want to
通货膨胀是否意味着他们不想
cut rates and that's the debate they're
降息，这就是他们
going to have and we'll hear from
将要进行的辩论，我们将听到
different people on the Fed about which
美联储不同人士的意见，了解
way they are leaning at this point? We
他们目前倾向于哪种方式？ 我们
know Bowman and Chris Waller have said
知道鲍曼和克里斯沃勒已经表示
they would vote in favor of a rate cut.
他们将投票支持降息。
The other members of the Fed have been
美联储其他成员的回答
somewhere along a spectrum from probably
从“可能”
to no, not yet. We're going to wait for
到“不”以及“还没有”不等。 我们将等待
more data. Pal's in that data camp and
更多数据。 Pal 属于数据阵营，
when he speaks on Friday, we expect him
当他在周五发表讲话时，我们预计他
to sort of dance around the issue and
会回避这个问题，并
say we'll wait and see what the data
表示我们将拭目以待，看看
tell us between now and then.
从现在到那时数据会告诉我们什么。
>> Okay, we'll uh look forward to hearing
好的，我们期待听到
more from you, Mike. Thank you so much.
您的更多消息，迈克。 太感谢了。
We're going to now turn to our political
我们现在要转向政治
panel. uh Jeannie Sheen Shanzeno, senior
小组。 呃，
democracy fellow with the center for
study of the presidency in Congress and
国会总统研究中心高级民主研究员、
a Bloomberg politics contributor and
彭博政治撰稿人 Jeannie Sheen Shanzeno 和
Lester Mson, principal of the
international practice at the BGR group
here in Washington. Uh Jeannie, I wanted
华盛顿 BGR 集团国际业务负责人 Lester Mson。 呃，珍妮，我想
to start with you again. We can uh turn
再次和你开始。 我们可以来谈谈
to this whole question of tariffs. We
整个关税问题。 由于关税收入的增加，我们
did see a little bit of upside uh when
确实看到
it comes to the US credit rating thanks
美国信用评级略有上升
to tariff revenue coming in. But let's
。但我们
talk maybe about some of the downside
不妨谈谈未来
that we could be seeing for consumers
消费者可能面临的一些不利因素
down the road. The administration is now
。 政府目前正在
widening the uh uh the application of
扩大几周前宣布的
some of those metals tariffs that uh
部分金属关税的实施范围
were announced uh just weeks ago.
>> That's right. And that's what we've all
这是正确的。 这正是我们
expected by some estimates, and we've
根据一些估计所预期的，我们也在
heard this on Bloomberg um repeatedly
彭博社上多次听到
from some of the e econ economic
一些经济
experts. is going to be $2,000 per
专家谈论这一点。 由于这些关税，每个家庭将损失 2,000 美元
household as a result of these tariffs.
And as we get into school shopping
随着我们进入学校购物
season and then certainly for the
季，当然还有
holidays, consumers will feel that. And
假期，消费者会感受到这种变化。
we saw from the University of Michigan
consumer sentiment survey released just
从前几天发布的密歇根大学消费者信心调查中看到，
the other day that consumers are
消费者
concerned that they are not as confident
担心他们
in the economy going forward. And there
对未来经济的信心不足。
is an upside to this revenue coming in,
of course, as you mentioned. But the
当然，正如您所说，这笔收入也有一定的好处。 但
downside is is that tariffs are taxes.
缺点是关税就是税。
And so that money is not coming from
因此这些钱不是来自
foreign countries. It's coming from US
国外。 这些关税来自美国
companies who will, if they're not
公司，如果他们还没有
already, pass the price of those tariffs
这样做的话，他们会把关税的代价
on to consumers in the United States. So
转嫁给美国消费者。 因此
there's a tendency to talk about these
人们倾向于将其视为
as tariffs on other countries. Of
对其他国家征收的关税。
course, their tariffs we pay as
当然，作为美国人，我们需要支付关税来
Americans to bring this material in and
进口这些材料，而且
companies pay for a certain amount of
公司需要支付一定
time until they pass them off to
时间的费用，直到将这些材料转交给
consumers.
消费者。
Well, I want to build on this headline
好吧，我想基于
that we did get today that S&P global
我们今天看到的标题，标准普尔全球
rating said that tariff revenues will
评级表示关税收入将
help soften the blow to the US fiscal
有助于减轻对美国财政
health. Our article on the Bloomberg
健康的打击。 我们在彭博社的文章中
says, quote, "While Trump's trade war
写道：“尽管特朗普的贸易战给
has royal markets, unnerved foreign
市场带来了巨大冲击，让外国
governments, and provoked criticism from
政府感到不安，并引发了
leading economists, S&P affirmed its
主要经济学家的批评，但标准普尔仍然确认了
double A+ rating for the US." Lester,
对美国的双 A+ 评级。” 莱斯特，
how does the White House balance this
白宫如何平衡这一点
with the argument that Genie and
与 Genie 和
Democrats are going to be making ahead
民主党在
of 2026? We're already hearing it when
2026 年之前提出的论点？ 当谈到关税政策的推拉时，我们已经听到了这一点
it comes to the push and pull here with
the tariff policy.
Well, I I don't happen to agree with the
嗯，我碰巧不同意
administration on its tariff policies,
政府的关税政策，
so I'm much more likely to agree with
所以我更有可能同意
Jeie. I think in the long run, uh
杰伊的观点。 我认为从长远来看，
tariffs are are not at all beneficial to
关税对美国经济没有任何好处
the American economy. There can be
。 在某些
strategic moments when you need to
战略时刻，你需要
protect a certain industry over a couple
在几年内保护某个行业
of years. If you're very consistent and
。 如果你非常坚持、
very determined and very focused, you
非常坚定、非常专注，你就
can do some limited good. They can also
可以做一些有限的好事。 它们还可以
be a tool to help other countries uh or
成为帮助其他国家或
to kind of compel other countries to
迫使其他国家
lower their tariffs for American goods
降低美国商品
and services. But as a long-term
和服务关税的工具。 但作为一项长期
strategy, it doesn't make a lot of
战略，它没有多大
sense. Even if there is some income
意义。 即使因此有一些收入
coming into the US Treasury as a result
进入美国财政部
of this, that's effectively a tax on
，但这实际上也是对美国人的一种征税
Americans, and it's generally a very
，而且通常是一种非常
regressive tax. So, it's it falls uh
累退的税。 因此，
more harshly on people who can less
对于那些无力
afford that kind of additional cost. So,
承担此类额外费用的人来说，负担会更加沉重。 所以，
I I think it's not a it's not a smart
我认为这不是一个明智的
move. It may help the Fisk a bit over
举动。 短期内这或许对菲斯克有点帮助
the short term, but again, in the long
，但从
run, a tariff policy is is kind of
长远来看，关税政策注定会
doomed to failure. The US has benefits
失败。 美国
from open trade, free trade, uh, and if
从开放贸易、自由贸易中受益，如果
we can find those go back to those uh,
我们能够找到这些，回到那些
multilateral deals, we'll be in a much
多边协议中，我们将比在
better position than under this current
目前的结构下处于更好的地位
structure.
Jeannie, we've talked here about
珍妮，我们在这里讨论了
tariffs, but I want to get to another
关税问题，但我想谈谈
element of the president's policy when
总统政策的另一个方面，
it comes to companies in particular. And
特别是针对公司的问题。
we've seen news broken by Bloomberg over
过去一周，我们看到彭博社爆料
the past week about possible US
称，美国可能
investments in Intel, a struggling
对英特尔进行投资。英特尔是一家陷入困境的
chipmaker and yet an iconic one for the
芯片制造商，但却是美国的标志性企业
United States of America. Is this a good
。 这是一个好的
policy move? It certainly is a pivot for
政策举措吗？ 对于共和党来说，这无疑是一个转变，
the Republican party away from a very
不再对
much hands-off approach when it comes to
the corporate sector.
企业部门采取不干预的态度。
>> Yeah, absolutely, Mike. And it has been
是的，当然，迈克。
fascinating to watch how Donald Trump
观察唐纳德·特朗普如何在许多方面
has dominated and changed the Republican
主宰和改变共和党是件很有趣的事情
party in so many ways. I mean, we were
。 我的意思是，几分钟前我们
just talking, of course, about
刚刚谈到
isolationism a few minutes ago and in
孤立主义，以及
terms of his approach to fiscal policy,
他的财政政策方针，
as Lester just mentioned, tariffs, of
正如莱斯特刚才提到的，当然还有关税，
course, and now this. And I think Donald
现在还有这个。 我认为唐纳德·
Trump in this regard is representing
特朗普在这方面
well what he run ran as which is a
很好地体现了他的
populist. And this is something that he
民粹主义立场。 他
can turn to his base and say this is
可以向他的支持者说，这就是
what we are we are joining with these
我们与这些公司联手的目的
companies. This is what we are asking of
。 这正是我们对
them. Um so it is quite a shift for the
他们的要求。 嗯，所以这对共和党来说是一个很大的转变，
Republican party in this regard and I
think it's something that we will hear
认为我们会在
more about during the campaign. Donald
竞选期间听到更多关于这个的消息。 唐纳德·
Trump likes to tout his relationships
特朗普喜欢吹嘘他
with the business community and he wants
与商界的关系，他想
to show that it's going to benefit his
表明这将有利于他的
base and so I think that's what he's
支持者，所以我认为这就是他
setting up for 2026 and of course for
为 2026 年所做的准备，当然也是为
the Republican party going forward.
共和党的未来所做的准备。
>> We do want uh to bring you some breaking
我们确实想给大家带来一些突发
news here with the White House press
新闻，白宫新闻
secretary Caroline Levit is briefing
秘书卡罗琳·莱维特正在
reporters in the White House briefing
白宫新闻发布
room as we speak. If you're watching us
室向记者们介绍情况。 如果您正在观看
on Bloomberg television and for our
彭博电视台和我们的
radio listeners, you see Caroline Levit
广播节目，您会看到卡罗琳·莱维特 (Caroline Levit)
there at the podium taking questions and
站在讲台上回答问题，并且
some headlines crossing the terminal in
在最后时刻播报了一些头条新闻
just the last few moments. Levit says
。 莱维特表示，
that the president has ruled out boots
总统已经排除了向
on the ground in Ukraine as our allies
乌克兰派遣地面部队的可能性，因为我们的盟友
are talking about those security
正在讨论
guarantees in any such potential peace
任何此类潜在和平协议中的安全保障
deal. She also said that accommodations
。 她还表示，与
for a Putin Zalinsky meeting is
普京·扎林斯基会晤的安排正在进行
underway. that is that bilateral meeting
中。 这就是
that we heard President Trump talk about
in his post on True Social yesterday,
昨天在 True Social 上听到特朗普总统在其帖子中谈到的双边会晤，
but we have yet to get confirmation from
但我们尚未得到克里姆林宫的确认，确认
the Kremlin that that meeting is going
该会晤将会
to take place. uh Lester to get your
举行。 呃，莱斯特，
thoughts on the strategy here as we
当我们
bring the conversation back to foreign
把话题转回到外交
policy and the meeting that we saw
政策和
yesterday here in Washington. What sort
昨天在华盛顿举行的会议上时，我想听听你对这一战略的看法。
of strategy are we seeing from the White
House as they try to show some forward
当白宫试图展示一些前进的
progress, some forward momentum here
进展、一些前进的动力，将
getting all of these leaders together at
所有领导人聚集在
the White House?
白宫时，我们看到了什么样的策略？
>> Well, no surprise on the no US troops on
那么，地面上没有美军也就不足为奇了
the ground. I think we all kind of knew
。 我想我们都知道，
that going into this whole scenario that
考虑到整个情况，
that just wasn't very realistic. But if
这并不太现实。 但如果
it's true that we're pushing towards a
我们确实在推动与
Putin Zalinsky meeting, that is uh a
普京·扎林斯基的会面，那么这
modest victory for President Trump. They
对特朗普总统来说是一个小小的胜利。 他们
have th of course those two have not
当然有两个人没有
talked. They're at war with each other.
说话。 他们正在互相交战。
Uh and if he can get them in the same
呃，如果他能把他们聚集在同一个
room and at least begin some sort of uh
房间里，至少开始某种
discussion about a way forward here.
关于如何前进的讨论。
That is that is exactly what President
这正是
Trump has been outlining. It is
特朗普总统所概述的。 这
effectively what he ran on last year. uh
实际上就是他去年竞选时所采取的做法。 呃，
American people do not want to commit
美国人民不想再通过我们的民主程序将
their own blood and treasure to this
自己的鲜血和财富投入到这场
conflict any longer through our
冲突中
democratic process. We have learned
。 我们已经了解到了
that. Uh so this is this is kind of the
这一点。 嗯，所以这是一个合乎
logical place to be. If he can use his
逻辑的地方。 如果他能利用自己
very considerable diplomatic heft to
强大的外交影响力来
promote these meetings, then good for
推动这些会晤，那么对
President Trump. Of course, it remains
特朗普总统来说是件好事。 当然，在
incredibly difficult to get a deal here.
这里达成协议仍然极其困难。
Jeannie was right earlier in the show.
珍妮在节目早些时候说得对。
Uh this is this is a this is the
嗯，这是
thorniest issue there is in the world
today except perhaps for Gaza. So
当今世界上最棘手的问题，也许除了加沙之外。 因此，
President Trump's taking on a big big
特朗普总统面临着
big challenge but this could be a
巨大的挑战，但这对
significant step forward for him.
他来说可能是向前迈出的重要一步。
>> All right our political panel today
好的，我们今天的政治小组成员
Jeannie Shien Zeno senior democracy
fellow with the center for the study of
是
the presidency and congress and Lester
总统与国会研究中心高级民主研究员 Jeannie Shien Zeno 和
Mson principal of the international
practice at BGR and a Republican
BGR 国际实践负责人兼共和党
strategist. We thank you both for being
战略家 Lester Mson。 我们感谢你们两位
here on a busy news day. We're going to
在新闻繁忙的日子里来到这里。 我们将
be following all of these developments.
关注所有这些事态发展。
We'll bring you more headlines out of
我们将为您带来卡罗琳·莱维特新闻发布会的更多头条新闻
Caroline Levit's press conference as
they come through. And we have more
。 我们接下来还会进行更多
conversations up ahead. You're not going
对话。 您不会
to want to miss this one. We have Annne
想错过这个的。 我们请到了安妮·
Newberger, uh the former deputy national
纽伯格，她是拜登政府前
security adviser for cyber and emerging
网络和新兴技术副国家安全顾问
technology in the Biden administration.
We're going to talk about that Bloomberg
我们将讨论彭博
News reporting about a potential US
新闻社有关美国可能
stake in Intel, the race for dominance
入股英特尔的报道，以及
in the AI space with China. Stick with
美国与中国在人工智能领域争夺主导地位的竞争。 坚持与
us. This is balance of power on
我们同在。 这就是
Bloomberg TV and radio. I'm Tyler
彭博电视台和广播电台的力量平衡。 我是泰勒·
Kendall alongside Michael Shepard.
肯德尔 (Tyler Kendall)，和迈克尔·谢泼德 (Michael Shepard) 一起报道。
The markets and Washington watching this
big story today when it comes to Intel.
今天，市场和华盛顿都在关注英特尔这一重大事件。 美国
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnik
商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克 (Howard Lutnik)
confirming a Bloomberg news scoop that
证实了彭博社的独家新闻，称
discussions are underway between the US
美国
and Intel for the government to take a
和英特尔正在就政府
stake in the chipmaker casting the plan
入股该芯片制造商进行讨论，该计划
as a bid to convert chips and science
旨在将芯片和科学
act grants into equity. This would be a
法案拨款转化为股权。 这将是一
big step. This could bolster the
大进步。 在英特尔削减开支和裁员的当下，此举可能会增强
company's finances at a time when we've
公司的财务状况
seen Intel has been slashing spending
and cutting jobs. And lucky for us, my
。 幸运的是，
co-host today is Michael Shepard, who
今天的联合主持人是迈克尔·谢泼德 (Michael Shepard)，他
happens to be our expert when it comes
恰好是
to the industry. He is our senior editor
这个行业的专家。 他是我们的
uh for tech and strategic industry. So
科技和战略产业高级编辑。 那么
Mike, what do we have to know about this
迈克，我们需要了解这笔
potential deal particularly how it's
潜在交易的哪些方面，特别是它的
structured here? How is this unique?
结构？ 它有何独特之处？
Well, the structure it remains a bit
嗯，它的结构仍然有点
fluid, but our understanding is that
不稳定，但我们的理解是，
they intend to take some of the money
他们打算拿出一部分原本
that was going to be allocated over time
to Intel as part of the chips act and do
要根据芯片法案分配给英特尔的资金，并
it much more quickly and give the
更快地完成这项工作，作为
government in return uh equity and
回报，政府可以获得
equity stake in the company. And that
该公司的股权和股权。 这
would amount to about 10% of Intel and
将占到英特尔约 10% 的股份，并使
it would make the US the largest
美国成为
shareholder in this iconic chip maker.
这家标志性芯片制造商的最大股东。
Uh the one that really put uh the
嗯，它真正让
semiconductor industry on the map and
半导体行业名声大噪，
you know coined in a way the words
你知道，在某种程度上创造了“
Silicon Valley if you think about it
硅谷”这个词，如果你仔细想想，
Tyler it really is an iconic uh uh
泰勒，它真的是一个标志性的
venture and it's one that the US and
冒险，也是美国，
certainly the Biden administration also
当然还有拜登政府，
made its own efforts to try to shore up
为巩固国内芯片行业做出的努力
domestic chipm. Um, but some of the
。 嗯，但是
questions Howard Lutnik did answer were
霍华德·卢特尼克确实回答了一些问题，
what governance role would the US have?
美国将扮演什么样的治理角色？
Would it take a board seat? Would it get
它会占据董事会席位吗？ 它会获得
a golden share? At least for now, it
黄金股吗？ 至少目前
doesn't look like that is going to be
看来，情况并非如此
the case. But that could all change. The
。 但这一切都可能改变。
negotiations are still underway. It's
谈判仍在进行中。
still kind of a fluid situation. So, we
情况仍然不稳定。 因此，我们
will have to see what emerges. And of
必须看看会出现什么结果。
course, Intel is up today because they
当然，英特尔今天股价上涨，因为他们
also got good news of an investment from
也得到了软银投资的好消息
Soft Bank, a $2 billion equity uh stake
，软银将向英特尔投资 20 亿美元股权，
from them to help uh on the artificial
以帮助其在
intelligence front. So, there's a lot of
人工智能领域发展。 所以，
movement in this whole chip space right
目前整个芯片领域有很多动态
now.
>> Well, a lot of movement, right? Because
嗯，动作很多，对吧？ 因为
this does seem like perhaps a reversal
这看起来确实像是
from President Trump, right? Because
特朗普总统的逆转，对吧？ 因为
just a couple weeks ago, he was caused
就在几周前，他
calling for the ouster of uh the head of
呼吁罢免
Intel, right? after we saw this inquiry
英特尔首席执行官，对吗？ 在我们看到一位美国参议员就与中国的一些关系提出这项调查
or this request for documents from a
或文件请求之后
leading US senator over some ties to
China.
>> It really was an extraordinary turnabout
这确实是一个非凡的转变，
because you saw within a matter of days
因为你可以看到，在短短几天内，
the president pivot from calling
总统就从要求
essentially for Lip Bhutan, the Intel
英特尔首席执行官利普·布坦
CEO to resign uh to them welcoming him
辞职，转变为欢迎他
to the White House and then essentially
来到白宫，并称
calling him a great leader and a great
他是一位伟大的领导者和伟大的
CEO, embracing whatever vision he may
首席执行官，欢迎他
have presented to the president about
向总统提出的任何关于
turning the company around. And yet the
扭转公司局面的愿景。 然而，
turnaround that Lip Bhutan is pushing
Lip Bhutan 推动的转变
may not comport entirely with the US
可能与美国
effort to try to get more uh investment
试图在芯片行业获得更多投资的努力并不完全一致
in the chip industry. It's an expensive
。 这是一个昂贵的
proposition and it also requires a lot
提议，并且也需要
of customers for Intel. So this is a
英特尔获得大量客户。 因此，这
major challenge for the company and for
对公司和政府来说都是一个重大挑战，
the government and we'll have to see
我们必须看看
what tension there is between the two.
两者之间存在什么样的紧张关系。
And we're pleased today to be joined by
今天我们很高兴邀请到
Ann Newberger. uh she is the pain
安·纽伯格 (Ann Newberger) 加入。 呃，她是
distinguished lecturer at Stanford
斯坦福大学的杰出讲师
University and a former deputy national
，曾担任
security adviser in the Biden
拜登
administration for cyber and emerging
政府负责网络和新兴
technology and thank you so much for
技术的副国家安全顾问，非常感谢您
joining us and we do want to stay on our
加入我们，我们确实想继续讨论
main story of the moment in this area of
tech with Intel. The question I have for
英特尔在这一技术领域的当前主要新闻。 我想问
you is uh what are the risks of the US
您的问题是，美国
actually taking a stake in such a
实际上入股这样一家
critical company and essentially
关键公司并实质上
becoming an owner and owning whatever
成为所有者并承担
problems it may have.
其可能存在的任何问题的风险是什么。
>> Good to be with you Mike. Thank you so
很高兴和你在一起，迈克。 太感谢了
much. You know so the core risk is that
。 你知道，核心风险是
doesn't achieve the overall goal. What's
无法实现总体目标。
the overall goal? I think we know that
总体目标是什么？ 我认为我们知道
the global semiconductor supply chain is
全球半导体供应链
both fragile and concentrated. While
既脆弱又集中。 虽然
over just about 50% of chips are
超过 50% 的芯片是
designed by American companies, only 12%
由美国公司设计的，但只有 12%
of chips are manufactured in the United
的芯片在美国制造，
States and 92% of the most advanced
而 92% 的最先进
chips are manufactured in Taiwan, which
芯片是在台湾制造的，这
gives both a unique dependence on the
不仅在经济方面产生了独特的依赖，
economic side and from a national
而且从国家
security perspective, it's deeply
安全角度来看，对于
concerning with regard to potentially um
a crisis around Taiwan and the
台湾潜在的危机以及
dependence on manufacturing in Taiwan.
对台湾制造业的依赖，令人深感担忧。
So the goal of a US investment would be
因此，美国投资的目标
to essentially help in this strategic
本质上是帮助这一战略
sector help the company be successful
领域中的公司取得成功，
because having domestic US manufacturing
因为拥有美国国内制造业
is so critical because of the range of
至关重要，因为
uses of semiconductors from defense and
半导体的用途范围广泛，从国防和
military to critical infrastructure all
军事到关键基础设施，再到我们
the way through to connected toys our
children play with.
孩子玩的联网玩具。
And at the same time that we've seen the
与此同时，我们看到
Trump administration discuss whether to
特朗普政府正在讨论是否
uh buy a portion in essence of Intel,
购买英特尔的部分股权，
we've also seen them uh open the door
我们也看到他们
essentially to Nvidia to uh resume sales
向英伟达敞开大门，允许其恢复向中国销售
of some of its AI chips to China and
部分人工智能芯片，
perhaps even sell a downgraded version
甚至可能向中国客户销售
of its more advanced Blackwell AI chip
其更先进的 Blackwell 人工智能芯片的降级版本
uh to Chinese customers. Is this a good
。 这是个好
idea? uh the Trump administration
主意吗？ 呃，特朗普政府
certainly thinks so in terms of
在
disseminating the US tech stack but what
传播美国技术栈方面确实是这么想的，但
are the risks embedded in that strategy?
这一战略中存在哪些风险？
So as you know both are core to the
因此，正如您所知，两者都是
larger strategic tech competition the US
美国与中国之间更大规模战略技术竞争的核心，
has with China right the goal of the
first and equity stake would be to say
第一个目标和股权就是说，
the potential is to take the model that
潜在的做法是采取
worked with the 2008 bailout of the auto
与 2008 年汽车
industry an equity stake tied to
行业救助计划相符的模式，将股权与
outcomes restricted to a time period
限制在一定时间段内的结果挂钩，
again tied to those outcomes and
再次与这些结果挂钩，并
replacing the B administration approach
取代 B 管理方法，
which was grants and loans which the CEO
即赠款和贷款，
of Intel said was taking too long and
英特尔首席执行官表示这种方法耗时太长，
potentially has the risks of you know
可能会
reducing the competitiveness of the
降低公司的竞争力
company. So that's what's driving in
。 这就是推动
terms of the broader USChina tech
中美更广泛的科技
competition and ensuring there's a
竞争并确保
sovereign capability for chips on the
高端芯片自主生产能力的因素
high end. In NVIDIA chips and AI, AI is
。 在 NVIDIA 芯片和 AI 领域，AI 是
a strategic arena both because of the
一个战略领域，因为
application of AI for military and
AI 不仅可应用于军事和
intelligence capabilities as well as the
情报能力，而且
broader economic competitiveness that we
believe AI over time will drive across
相信，随着时间的推移，AI 将在各个
industries. So as a result currently the
行业推动更广泛的经济竞争力。 因此，目前
highestend US chips manufactured for AI
美国制造的最高端人工智能芯片
are manufactured in the US and balancing
是在美国制造的，而特朗普政府一直在思考和做出的权衡是将
um providing them to China or whether
其提供给中国，还是
broader uptake of the US AI stack would
更广泛地采用美国人工智能堆栈来
drive global development on US chips is
推动美国芯片的全球发展
the trade-off the Trump administration
has been thinking about and making. A
number of people criticized the decision
一些人批评
to provide highestend chips to China
向中国提供最高端芯片的决定，
because of a concern it'll advance
因为他们担心这会增强
Chinese military capabilities. Certainly
中国的军事能力。 毫无疑问，
CEO of Nvidia makes the case that it'll
Nvidia 的首席执行官表示，这将
deepen global reliance on the US tech
加深全球对美国技术
stack for this critical new industries
栈的依赖，因为这些关键的新兴产业
being built on AI.
正在基于人工智能进行建设。
>> We do want to bring in some breaking
我们确实想从白宫新闻秘书那里获取一些突发
news headlines from the White House
新闻头条，
press secretary who has now concluded
她现在已经结束了
her briefing at the White House. But as
在白宫的简报会。 但就在
we're having this conversation, she was
我们进行这次谈话的同时，她
also having this conversation with
也在与
reporters commenting on this story on
评论英特尔相关报道的记者进行交谈
Intel, saying that the commerce
，并表示商务
secretary, Howard Lutnik, is currently
部长霍华德·卢特尼克 (Howard Lutnik) 目前正在
ironing out the details of that deal.
敲定该协议的细节。
She said that it is a creative idea in
她说，这是一个有创意的想法，
her words as we try to glean some more
我们正试图收集有关
details about what uh its structure is
它的结构
actually going to look like. And she
实际上会是什么样子的更多细节。 她还
adds that President Trump's interest in
补充说，特朗普总统对此的兴趣
this really does have to do with
确实与
reshoring manufacturing. uh to build on
制造业回流有关。 嗯，为了进一步
this conversation and can you just give
讨论这个问题，您能否给
us a little bit more context here about
我们提供一些背景信息，说明
the urgency that the US is facing when
美国在这一领域的竞争力方面所面临的紧迫性，
it comes to competitiveness in this
space and how the White House uh is
以及白宫如何
dealing with those those different
处理这些不同的
factors here to try to strike a balance
因素，以试图在
between making sure that our producers
确保我们的生产商
or companies have enough time to move
或公司有足够的时间转移
their supply chains but also keeping up
其供应链与保持
with this idea that we are in this race
with China.
与中国竞争的想法之间取得平衡。
>> Absolutely. So the core issue was around
绝对地。 因此，核心问题在于
manufacturing of advanced edge
先进边缘半导体的制造，
semiconductors and that's where you know
这就是英特尔
the there is an urgency in changing
改变路线的紧迫性所在，
Intel's course Intel's facility foundry
英特尔
um plant in Ohio has been delayed until
位于俄亥俄州的代工厂已推迟到
2030. Um so accelerating the time frame
2030 年。因此，加快
for foundry capabilities so there is a a
代工能力的时间表，以便
backup in the United States is key. With
在美国有备份是关键。 话
that said, you know, chips are
虽如此，你知道，芯片是
components used across industries.
跨行业使用的组件。
Companies have supply chains. So having
公司有供应链。 因此，我们
more reliance and understanding of when
更加依赖和了解
chips will be available in the US, at
美国何时可以供应芯片，供应
what quantities, frankly, at what sizes,
数量是多少，坦率地说，供应尺寸是多大
larger end, which are used in consumer
，用于消费产品的较大端
products, all the way through to the
，一直到
most um refined smaller semiconductors,
which are used in high-end products. So
用于高端产品的最精细的较小半导体。 因此，
really having a knowledge of helping
真正了解如何帮助
Intel meet its timelines and tying
英特尔满足其时间表并将
potential equity stake to those
潜在的股权与这些
timelines also would give greater
时间表联系起来，也将为依赖芯片的
assurance to the number of sectors
众多行业提供更大的保证，
relying on chips because so much of
因为很多
manufacturing is still just in time and
制造业仍然处于及时状态，
needs to rely on knowing when ships will
需要依靠知道船只何时
come where
到达何处，
>> and I wanted to pivot a little bit to
我想稍微转到
the other area of your expertise and of
您的另一个专业领域，
course that is cyber security and I
当然那就是网络安全，我
wanted to ask you about how much
想问您，在
artificial intelligence is changing the
game when it comes to both uh defensive
防御性
and offensive cyber security operations.
和进攻性网络安全行动方面，人工智能在多大程度上改变了游戏规则。
>> It's a gamecher across both. First, it's
这是一个横跨两者的游戏者。 首先，
always easier to be on attack than
进攻总是比
defense, right? An attacker has to find
防守容易，对吧？ 攻击者必须找到
one way in. A defender has to be
一个进入的方法。防御者必须
monitoring every virtual door and
监视每个虚拟的门和
window. What we're seeing now on the
窗。 我们现在在
attack side is more attackers leveraging
攻击方面看到的是，更多的攻击者利用
it for spear fishing, very focused
它来进行鱼叉式钓鱼，这些非常有针对性的
emails that get people to click on them
电子邮件会让人们点击它们，而这些电子邮件
that are often the first point of entry
往往是第一个切入点
and compromise, making them more
和妥协点，这使得它们更
believable. We're seeing that on
容易被相信。 我们在进攻中看到了这一点
offense. I think we also can anticipate
。 我认为我们还可以预见到
that we'll see more advanced attacks,
我们将会看到更先进的攻击，
multi-stage attacks that use AI to
多阶段攻击，这些攻击使用人工智能
adjust as a defender tries to defend.
在防御者试图防御时进行调整。
And I'm concerned that one of the first
我担心，
areas we'll see that is in the
我们首先看到的领域之一就是
burgeoning ransomware industry where
蓬勃发展的勒索软件行业，
criminals often in safe haven countries
犯罪分子经常在
like Russia try to attack companies that
俄罗斯等避风港国家试图攻击
have insufficient defenses in order to
防御能力不足的公司，以
um force them to pay a ransom to get
迫使他们支付赎金来
back their data or get back the
取回数据或恢复
operations of their networks. On the
网络运营。 在
defense side, AI can be a gamecher in
防御方面，人工智能可以发挥重要作用，它
terms of actually helping identify
实际上可以帮助识别
misconfigurations in a network, making
网络中的错误配置，
sense of firewall logs that are often
理解通常
hard to parse and automating a lot of
难以解析的防火墙日志，并自动执行大量
the manual work around cyber security.
围绕网络安全的手动工作。
We're just seeing companies build in AI
我们只是看到一些公司
for defense. Google announced, you know,
为了防御而开发人工智能。 谷歌宣布，
they had used an AI capability to find a
他们已经利用人工智能功能发现了
major vulnerability in one of their
其一款产品中的一个重大漏洞
products and patch it. Uh DARPA at the
并对其进行了修补。 呃，DARPA 在
recent hackers conference announced a
最近的黑客会议上也宣布了
second phase as well of using AI to not
第二阶段的使用人工智能
only find but patch vulnerabilities. So
不仅可以查找漏洞，还可以修补漏洞。
the race is on. It'll advantage both and
比赛开始了。 这对双方都有利，
I think the race is really on to see
我认为比赛真的要看
which one advances further.
谁能走得更远。
>> Well to put a finer point on this Annie,
好吧，安妮，为了更准确地说明这一点，
you had a really fascinating piece in
你本月早些时候在外交事务方面发表了一篇非常有趣的文章，
foreign affairs earlier this month and I
want to pull a quote from it. uh it's
想从中引用一段话。 呃，
titled that China is winning the cyber
标题是中国正在赢得网络
war and you write that China's cyber
战，您写道，中国的网络
dominance extends well by beyond
优势远远超出了
telecommunications espionage going on to
电信间谍活动的范围，并且继续说
say these intrusions show little
这些入侵几乎没有显示出
evidence of traditional intelligence
传统情报
gathering in your view in your expertise
收集的证据，以您的专业知识来看，
what is the biggest most urgent action
that the US government could take right
now to fend off these threats when it
comes to competition with China
与中国的竞争中，美国政府现在可以采取的最大、最紧急的行动是什么，以从
>> fundamentally using AI for defense. So,
根本上利用人工智能进行防御来抵御这些威胁。 因此，
we're in a battle between democracies
我们正处于
like the US and authoritarian countries
美国这样的民主国家与
like China. In democracies,
中国这样的专制国家之间的斗争。 在民主国家
traditionally, governments haven't
，政府传统上不会
monitored the critical power, water, and
监控美国人生活所必需的电力、水和
pipelines that underpin American lives
管道，
because they're privately owned. And
因为它们属于私人所有。
传统上，政府不会
monitored privately owned networks. In
监控私人网络。 在
countries like China, not only are
中国这样的国家，
pipelines, water, and power companies
管道、水利和电力公司
often stateowned enterprises, but China
通常都是国有企业，而且中国还
has a great firewall where they monitor
拥有强大的防火墙，不仅可以监控
for both surveillance obviously of their
citizens, but also for cyber attacks and
公民，还可以监控网络攻击，并
they can block those attacks in line. So
在线阻止这些攻击。 因此，
the asymmetry between the models means
模型之间的不对称意味着
that in the US we are at a disadvantage.
我们在美国处于劣势。
We need to use AI to find and fix the
我们需要利用人工智能来查找并修复美国人所依赖的关键基础设施
most critical vulnerabilities in our
中最严重的漏洞
critical infrastructure that Americans
rely on. AI gives us the way to pull
。 人工智能使我们能够
that data together, simulate attacks,
汇总这些数据、模拟攻击，
and make the investments most purposeful
并对
for the attacks that could actually
可能真正
disable large amounts of critical
摧毁大量关键
infrastructure. So that could work
基础设施的攻击进行最有目的的投资。 因此，这可以在
within our model in a partnership
我们的模型中发挥作用，即与能源部
between government agencies like the
等政府机构合作，
Department of Energy building digital
建立
replicas of our energy grid to model
我们的能源网的数字复制品来模拟
attacks and then work with companies to
攻击，然后与公司合作
fix the most critical vulnerabilities.
修复最关键的漏洞。
>> All right. and Newberger pay
好的。 纽伯格是
distinguished lecturer at Stamford
University and former deputy national
，曾任拜登政府
We thank you so much for your insight
我们非常感谢您的见解
and that fascinating conversation about
以及关于
the competition with China when it comes
与中国在
to artificial intelligence. Thank you
人工智能领域的竞争的精彩对话。 感谢您
for joining us today on the early
今天收看《
edition of Balance of Power. We'll have
权力平衡》早期版本。 我们
more for you here out of Washington at
将于下午 5:00 在华盛顿为您带来更多新闻。
5:00 p.m. Eastern. I'm Tyler Kendall
东。 我是泰勒·肯德尔 (Tyler Kendall)，
here alongside Bloomberg's Michael
也是彭博社的迈克尔·
Shepard. Bloomberg Business Week Daily
谢泼德 (Michael Shepard)。 接下来是《彭博商业周刊日报》
is up next. Stick with us. This is
。 坚持与我们同在。 这是